Executive Summary
This report assesses the strategic implications of the sharp rise in cybercrime in Uzbekistan between 2019 and 2024. The analysis focuses on the scale, methods, and systemic vulnerabilities exposed by the increase in digital financial fraud, particularly involving banking cards.
The report details how this trend threatens Uzbekistan’s internal security, economic stability, and broader modernisation goals.
The goal is to alert decision-makers, investors, and actors involved in the country and region’s dynamics to critical vulnerabilities and the urgent need for policy adjustments.
Key Takeaways
- Cybercrime in Uzbekistan increased by over 6,700% in five years, now constituting nearly half of all reported criminal cases.
- The prevalence of banking card fraud highlights significant vulnerabilities within digital financial security.
- The rapid rise in cybercrime creates internal vulnerabilities that may undermine national security and deter digital economic development.
Strategic Context
Uzbekistan’s drive for economic reform and digital modernisation under President Mirziyoyev has occurred within an authoritarian framework with limited institutional oversight.
Uzbekistan, a young, resource-rich nation in a strategic location, aims to lead Central Asia. However, expanding digital infrastructure without also expanding regulatory and enforcement capacity has opened the door to new crimes.
In a nation experiencing a surge in digitalisation yet lacking sufficient safeguards, cybercrime has become a serious internal security concern. The changing security landscape poses a significant threat to Tashkent’s economic and security objectives, especially as the government navigates modernisation while striving for political stability.
Key Dynamics and Catalysts
The scale and speed of cybercrime expansion reflect both technological penetration and insufficient cyber governance. In 2024, 44.4% of all crimes were cyber-related. The most common attack methods include:
- Malicious software and links (60%) granting unauthorised access to financial information.
- Social engineering via SMS codes (16%) to manipulate user authentication.
- Digital identity misuse to buy loans (4%).
- Fraud on commercial platforms (11%).
- Other monetary deception schemes (9%).
This issue stems from several factors: insufficient digital literacy alongside growing mobile and online banking use, inadequate anti-crime laws and technology, and limited institutional capacity for preventing, detecting, and prosecuting cybercrime.
Risk and Constraints
The sharp increase in cybercrime acutely pressures Uzbekistan’s internal security apparatus, already tasked with border control and political surveillance. Current law enforcement capacities may not be sufficient to manage this shift, leading to several constraints:
- Public confidence in digital services and financial institutions might decline.
- Potential economic losses undermining consumer confidence and domestic capital circulation.
- Reputational damage affecting international perceptions of Tashkent’s digital investment climate.
- Risk of external exploitation of domestic vulnerabilities, particularly through transnational criminal networks.
Authoritarian control limits the transparency and participation necessary for effective multi-sector cyber policy. Regulatory rigidity may inhibit rapid response and adaptation to cyber threats.
Opportunities and Imperatives
Despite the escalation, the situation presents actionable imperatives for the Uzbek government:
- Create a national cybersecurity strategy through inter-ministerial collaboration, supported by specialised enforcement teams.
- Improve digital banking and online services by enforcing stronger technical standards, such as multi-factor authentication and real-time fraud detection.
- Increase digital literacy programs for everyone, with a focus on data protection and prevention.
- Cooperate bilaterally and multilaterally with regional partners like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to share cybercrime intelligence.
Increase cybersecurity awareness is fundamental to protect citizens and provide guarantees to foreign investors, especially those companies involved in the country’s defence modernisation. Institutional reforms targeting cyber resilience could align with Uzbekistan’s broader goals of economic modernisation and regional leadership.
Forecast and Scenarios
- Baseline Scenario (2025–2027). Cybercrime can rise but at a decelerating pace because of reactive state measures. Slightly better public awareness and banking regulation lessened losses for consumers. Unfortunately, resources for enforcement are limited, and criminals quickly find ways around new regulations. Confidence in digital platforms remains fragile.
- Adverse Scenario. Lack of coordinated state response leads to exponential cybercrime growth, with spillover into corporate and critical infrastructure domains. E-commerce and digital services shrink because of financial and reputational damage. The resulting discontent fuels greater government oversight and could spark social unrest.
- Favourable Scenario. Uzbekistan implements an integrated cyber security strategy supported by institutional reforms and foreign investors. Public-private collaboration enhances resilience. Crime rates stabilise, and digital economic activities resume growth, improving domestic confidence and investor outlook.
